And then the robots came

Transcript

Kia ora tātou! Lovely to see you all here — and lovely to be here today!

Ko Bron tōku ingoa. My name is Bron Thomson. As Marcus mentioned, I’m the Founder and, until recently, the co-CEO of Springload Te Pipītanga.

There’s been a nice shift in my role, and I’m now the Executive Director.

Let me start with this image — a graph you’ll likely recognise. It’s an exponential curve. One I think about a lot.

You’ll know the curve begins flat. It stays flat for a very long time — then moves a little — and suddenly, it moves fast. Really fast.

Let’s label the axis: time across the bottom, and change going up. And let’s put us on there too — humans.

The tricky part is, our brains don’t work exponentially. So if we use the past to predict the future, we’d likely draw a gentle slope. A line, not a curve.

In business, we’ve got models for this too. We talk about cycles of growth and decline — expansion, recession, recovery. Peaks and troughs. It makes sense, because that’s what we’ve seen happen regularly.

We know how to plan for it. There are books, experts, rules of thumb. Create your five-year plan. Build your strategic pillars. Execute methodically. Communicate transparently. Bob’s your uncle — you’re running a business.

That was our story too. At Springload, we grew steadily for 17 years. We looked after our clients and our team, and we did good work.

Then came March 2020. You all know what happened. We went home — and stayed there. The world changed, almost overnight. It was the kind of change no one was really prepared for. At our peak, we had about 90 staff.

And every year since 2020, I’ve felt the level of external volatility grow like never before.

There’s a term: black swan event — a rare, unpredictable event with major consequences. Then there’s grey rhino — not quite a surprise, but still severe. Covid was definitely a black swan.

But since then? It’s felt like the grey rhinos just kept charging.

These aren't entirely new challenges — but they’re happening at such speed and scale, the usual rules no longer seem to apply.

And the question that keeps going around in my head is: How do you run a business when you literally can’t predict the future?

2020 was the year everything changed. Beyond the fear of the pandemic, just the shift to working from home had a major impact on business. That shift affected not only us, but our clients — all at different rates.

Working remotely changes everything: team culture, communication, knowledge sharing, time management. You can’t just tap someone on the shoulder anymore — they might be in a meeting, or asleep — so now it’s all about calendars.

Supporting junior team members got harder. They weren’t learning by osmosis anymore. Sitting beside someone, shadowing them — gone.

It also affected wellbeing. And suddenly, we were trying to run a business based on people’s time — when those people were less mentally and physically resilient than before. Our wellbeing budgets skyrocketed — and it got worse in 2021.

I call 2021 “The Great Sickness.” We didn’t have to stay home for seven days anymore when sick, so Covid spread. Through our team. Through our clients’ teams. And for a professional services business, where revenue is tied to billable hours — that was brutal. Projects stalled. Income dropped.

Meanwhile, the borders stayed shut. The housing market took off. Global tech companies came hunting for NZ talent, thanks to a VC-fuelled tech bubble.

Salaries exploded. People with limited experience were landing big roles at rates we couldn’t match.

One of my team came to say goodbye. He said, “My friends are on this gravy train — I need to be on it too.”

We couldn’t compete. Costs climbed, but clients resisted our rate increases. We were being squeezed from both sides.

Then came 2022. The Great Resignation. And soon after, The Great Exodus.

When the borders reopened, people who’d felt stuck during the pandemic made plans to leave — or simply to change. Resignation numbers rose. The talent market got tighter. Salaries kept climbing.

Then the housing market, which had soared, crashed. Interest rates spiked. Some of our team couldn’t service their mortgages. They wanted raises.

That’s when I really started questioning our entire business model. Professional services suddenly didn’t feel sustainable.

In 2023, the election happened. Not our first, but this one hit differently.

Over half our portfolio was public sector. And almost overnight — it vanished. Projects cancelled. Budgets frozen. New work shelved.

It wasn’t a slow burn. It was a Friday phone call — and a Friday finish.

We had to restructure. For the first time ever. Twenty out of sixty people were made redundant.

It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done as a leader.

Then came 2024. Recession hit. Companies — big and small — were downsizing or closing. Even strong, well-known brands.

Government cuts flooded the market with job seekers. Wellington, especially, felt grim.

This talk’s a bit grim, isn’t it? Don’t worry — it picks up.

And just when that was hard enough — the robots arrived.

Well, not robots exactly. AI. The ever-present spectre of Artificial General Intelligence.

An existential threat to our jobs — maybe even humanity, depending who you ask.

It’s coming fast. So now, not only is our business model hard to maintain — it might be completely wiped out.

We have teams of developers, designers, writers, researchers — all roles that could be automated.

The robots are here. Have you seen the Boston Dynamics robot? Still creepy. Still can’t fix its legs.

But they’ve been working on it since 2005 — and now robots of all kinds are showing up everywhere.

In factories. In homes. Looking after our kids. Keeping the elderly company. Doing dishes, vacuuming, mowing lawns. (Can’t wait for that one.)

So here’s the scary bit: if AI can produce work like a fully performing team member, how do you plan for that?

How do you prepare for a future where your business model might become obsolete — not in ten years, but in one?

Five-year plans? Useless. Long-term plans? Might as well throw them out.

I don’t have all the answers. But I believe there are two things we can count on.

First: humans don’t change that fast. Our environment might, but our brains are still wired like they were in the caves.

Second: we can’t predict what will happen — but we can prepare for how we respond.

So I want to share a few core principles. Let’s call it Bron’s Frameworks for Uncertainty.

1. Humans still want humans. After COVID, research showed just how much people value human-to-human interaction. That’s being tested now — with more chatbots, machines, and AI in our lives.

But people still want to feel heard. Understood. Treated like individuals. AI isn’t great at that — not yet.

2. Strategic responsiveness beats strategic planning. The five- or ten-year strategic plan? Dead. Instead, we need to stay ready for anything.

This means short-term scenario planning — think quarterly, not annually. Regular reassessment. Constant scanning for new threats and opportunities.

Embed a culture of experimentation and innovation. Don’t try to predict what will happen in three years — build systems that are agile enough to respond next week.

3. Strengthen everyone’s “change muscle”. Sorry to all the change managers out there — but I don’t think “change management” should be a separate thing.

That implies there’s a normal state, and then “change” happens. But change is the normal state now.

We need teams to be comfortable being uncomfortable.

That means setting expectations that everyone is constantly exploring new tools, new methods, new ideas. Regular check-ins: What have you learned? What are you trying? What’s next?

Celebrate experimentation. Celebrate failure. If people don’t feel safe to fail, they won’t feel safe to innovate.

4. Keep up with new tools — especially AI. It’s like drinking from a firehose. You can’t try everything — but you can stay curious.

Skim the newsletters. Let your team try new tools. Don’t be afraid to ditch what doesn’t work and move on quickly.

Make sharing and learning a habit across the team. It’s not a real learning culture if one person knows something and the rest don’t.

5. Diversify. Diversify your client base. Your revenue streams. Your services. Your team's skills.

This is a return to generalists. Twenty-five years ago, we were web designers who did everything — research, code, content, design.

Now, that kind of flexibility is a strength. But don’t dilute yourself. Think of it like planting a garden. You water all the seeds. Some will take off — and when they do, you nurture them. Others will lie dormant, but they’re ready for when the market changes.

Build financial cushioning. Innovation and experimentation cost money. And some of it will fail. So keep higher cash reserves than you might have before. That buffer is what helped us survive COVID — and the years after. If we hadn’t had that buffer, things would have looked very different.

Explore new business models. This is huge. Think beyond your current setup.

Create a portfolio of revenue streams — like a pizza wheel. Don’t just tweak your processes by 10%. Ask how technology, like AI, might completely transform your industry in the next 2–3 years.

Set expectations that people should be trying new tools, and sharing what works. Openly.

Ensure everyone’s voice is heard — no hiding in the background.

And one more thing — to the women over 40 I’m guessing there are quite a few women here over 40. I want to say something just for you.

Everything I’ve talked about — the change, the chaos — it’s already hard. It’s even harder when your mind and body don’t work the way they used to.

You lose words. You forget sentences. Thank God I’ve written all this down, honestly.

And here’s the thing — you are not alone.

Every woman going through this age band is experiencing some version of hormone loss. All of us.

Let’s bring it out into the open. Talk about it. Share with your peers. It makes it so much less hard.

There’s good research coming out now. New knowledge that can help our minds and our bodies. Hormones are real. They matter.

And most importantly, surround yourself with others going through the same thing. Be open. Be vulnerable.

The more we talk about it, the easier it becomes for everyone — especially for women in leadership who are holding so much.

So — back to the original question: how do you run a business when you can’t predict the future? Let’s go back to that curve. I don’t think we’re here yet. I think we’re right in the thick of it.

What’s ahead is more chaos. Not a clean curve, but a messier one. Spikes, crashes, and unknowns — driven by climate change, AI, and rapid, recursive technological advances.

This is our new world.

So I think we need to fundamentally reframe what success in business looks like.

• From growth metrics to adaptation metrics.

• From stability to anti-fragility.

• From best practices to next practic es.

• From fixed identities to fluid capabilities.

The businesses that will thrive aren’t the biggest or most stable. They’re the ones that can continuously reinvent themselves.

Thank you!